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by Karim Attia; November 2004. A lot's happened since I wrote this.  Pretty good forecast although the actual journey we've taken is different - it's been an amazing four-years! The USA Therefore, four more years of aggressive and divisive policy.  Therefore, global political instability. Therefore, inability to plan ahead confidently. Therefore, less risks taken vis-à-vis investment. Therefore, future capacity for growth reduced. Therefore, economic slow-down. Therefore, global recession. Therefore, pressure placed on politicians to act. Therefore, efforts to stimulate the economy and/or stabilise the political environment. Political stability would be achieved by reducing international barriers/increasing international co-operation. Stimulating the economy would be achieved by reducing interest rates, reducing taxes, increased government spending, removing barriers to trade – unleashing money. Oil Oil (and gas) is a strategic energy and raw material.  Its supply is critical to the world economy.  Oil reserves have already peaked and are now in terminal decline.  Oil is steadily running out.  As a result, oil will only continue to escalate in price as its scarcity becomes ever more evident.  This, plus the prospect of continued and additional political instability resulting from America’s policies, will drive global energy costs ever higher [1]. Increased energy costs will hit the poor and manufacturing hardest, but all ...